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Time-varying reproduction number estimation: fusing compartmental models with generalized additive models.
J R Soc Interface
January 2025
Department of Mathematics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
The reproduction number, the mean number of secondary cases infected by each primary case, gives an indication of the effort required to control the disease. Beyond the well-known reproduction number, there are two natural extensions, namely the and reproduction numbers. As behaviour, population immunity and viral characteristics can change with time, these reproduction numbers can vary over time.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThe severity of COVID 19 symptoms has a direct correlation with lymphopenia, affecting natural killer (NK) cells. SARS-CoV-2 specific "memory" NK cells obtained from convalescent donors can be used as cell immunotherapy. In 2022 a phase I, dose-escalation, single center clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the safety and feasibility of the infusion of CD3/CD56 NK cells against moderate/severe cases of COVID-19 (NCT04578210).
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEstimation of end-of-outbreak probabilities in the presence of delayed and incomplete case reporting.
Proc Biol Sci
January 2025
Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policymakers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a declaration (e.g.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFChanges in incidence and epidemiology of antimicrobial resistant pathogens before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany, 2015-2022.
BMC Microbiol
January 2025
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Berlin, Germany.
Background: Carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are among WHO's priority pathogens with antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Studies suggest potential impacts of the COVID-19-pandemic on AMR. We described changes in AMR incidence and epidemiology in Germany during the COVID-19-pandemic.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEpidemiologic survey for work-related idiopathic interstitial pneumonias focusing on idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in Korea, 2010-2022.
J Occup Environ Med
January 2025
Department of Research for Occupational Health, Institute of Occupation and Environment, Korea Workers' compensation & Welfare Service, Incheon, Republic of Korea.
Objective: This study aimed to share the process of epidemiologic survey and demonstrate the decisive factors for evaluating work-related Idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIPs) in Korea.
Methods: Data and reports of epidemiologic surveys were investigated and completed during 2010-2022.
Results: A total of 228 idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) cases requested for an epidemiologic survey, of which 153 (67.
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