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Increasing the cost-effectiveness of nutrient reduction targets using different spatial scales.
Sci Total Environ
October 2021
Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
In this paper, we investigate the potential gains in cost-effectiveness from changing the spatial scale at which nutrient reduction targets are set for the Baltic Sea, with particular focus on nutrient loadings from agriculture. The costs of achieving loading reductions are compared across five levels of spatial scale, namely the entire Baltic Sea; the marine basin level; the country level; the watershed level; and the grid square level. A novel highly-disaggregated model, which represents decreases in agricultural profits, changes in root zone N concentrations and transport to the Baltic Sea is used.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThree decades of regulation of agricultural nitrogen losses: Experiences from the Danish Agricultural Monitoring Program.
Sci Total Environ
September 2021
Aarhus University, Department of Bioscience, Vejlsøvej 25, DK-8600 Silkeborg, Denmark.
Excess nitrogen (N) losses from intensive agricultural production are a world-wide problem causing eutrophication in vulnerable aquatic ecosystems such as estuaries. Therefore, Denmark as one of the most intensively farmed countries in the world has enforced mandatory regulations on agricultural production since the late 1980s. We demonstrate the outcome of the regulations imposed on agriculture by analyzing decadal trends in nitrate (NO) concentrations and loads in streams using 29 years of detailed monitoring data and survey information on agricultural practices at field level from five intensively cultivated headwater catchments.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFQuantifying the effects of climate change on hydrological regime and stream biota in a groundwater-dominated catchment: A modelling approach combining SWAT-MODFLOW with flow-biota empirical models.
Sci Total Environ
November 2020
Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark; Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research, Beijing, China.
Climate change may affect stream ecosystems through flow regime alterations, which can be particularly complex in streams with a significant groundwater contribution. To quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and subsequently the stream biota, we linked SWAT-MODFLOW (A model coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Modular Finite-difference Flow Model) with flow-biota empirical models that included indices for three key biological taxonomic identities (fish, macroinvertebrates and macrophytes) and applied the model-complex to a groundwater-dominated catchment in Denmark. Effects of predicted climate change towards the end of this century relative to the reference period (1996-2005) were tested with two contrasting climate change scenarios of different greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFImpacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biota across spatial scales and ecosystems.
Nat Ecol Evol
August 2020
Faculty of Biology, Aquatic Ecology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses (that is, additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects). We know little about the spatial scales relevant for the outcomes of such interactions and little about effect sizes. These knowledge gaps need to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFImpacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea.
Sci Total Environ
August 2020
Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland.
This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed.
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