Developing and Validating a New Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Using Medical Examination Items in a Japanese Population - The Suita Study.

Background: The aim of this was to develop an atrial fibrillation (AF) risk score using items usually included in Japanese governmental health check-ups.

Methods And Results: We analyzed data from 6,476 Japanese participants registered in the Suita Study. At baseline, the participants were aged ≥30 years and were free from AF. Cox regression analysis was used to identify AF risk factors, and a 0-100 score was developed to predict AF events within 10 years. Within a median follow-up of 14.6 years, 278 participants developed AF. The risk score incorporated age [<50 years (16 points for men, 0 for women), 50-59 years (26 points for men, 14 for women), 60-69 years (41 points for men, 37 for women), ≥70 years (54 points for men, 51 for women)], current smoking with a smoking index >500 (7 points), heavy alcohol consumption (8 points), body mass index ≥25 kg/m(6 points), hypertension (7 points), urinary proteins (4 points), glutamic-pyruvic transaminase >50 IU/dL (4 points), and cardiovascular disease history (10 points). The 10-year AF event probabilities were 7.1%, 8.4%, 10.8%, and 15.9% for scores of 47-54, 55-58, 59-69, and ≥70, respectively.

Conclusions: The new risk score to predict AF uses items similar to those used in Japanese governmental health check-ups.