Changes in marital and health status as risk factors for a subsequent negative wealth shock: A population-based longitudinal study in the United States, 1995-2020.

Objectives: A negative wealth shock, defined as a loss of ≥75% in equivalized household total wealth over a short period, may cause adverse health outcomes for older adults. The individual-level risk factors for experiencing a negative wealth shock in later adulthood are unclear.

Methods: Data were from 25,072 adults aged ≥55 in the longitudinal, population-based US Health and Retirement Study from 1995 to 2020 (n = 123,651 observations across all study respondents). We performed multivariable-adjusted Poisson mixed effects models to examine the association of each of the four risk factors, 1) separation from or loss of a spouse/partner; 2) transition from better to worse self-reported general health; 3) transition from low to high depressive symptoms; and 4) transition from normal cognition to cognitive impairment without dementia (CIND) or dementia, with the subsequent experience of a negative wealth shock in mid-to-later life.

Results: All four risk factors increased the likelihood of newly experiencing a negative wealth shock: separation from or loss of a spouse/partner (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.41, 1.78), transition from excellent/good to fair/poor self-reported general health (IRR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.23), transition from low to high depressive symptoms (IRR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.19), and transition from normal to CIND or dementia (IRR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.22).

Discussion: This long-timespan, population-based study suggests that adverse changes in marital or health status in mid-to-later life may signal risks for a future negative wealth shock. Public policy interventions to support aging adults at risk of a negative wealth shock may be warranted.