Impact assessment of climate and land use change on the water-energy-food nexus: An application to the Ping River Basin, Thailand.

Despite growing recognition of the water-energy-food nexus (WEFN), understanding the combined impacts of climate and land use changes on these resources and their interdependencies remains limited. This study introduces a framework to evaluate these impacts and applies it to the Ping River Basin, Thailand. The framework is systematic and adaptable to river basins worldwide, with models tailored to regional climate conditions, data availability, and resource interactions. CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) were used for future climate projections, and the Dyna-CLUE model simulated land use changes for three periods: near future (2015-2039), mid future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2100). The integrated WEAP-MABIA model assessed the impacts on streamflow, hydropower potential and agricultural productivity. Results indicate rising rainfall and temperatures, with higher changes expected in the mid and far future. Rainfall is projected to increase during wet seasons and decrease during dry seasons, while temperature increases are most pronounced from April to June. Land use projections suggest reduced forest areas and expansion in agriculture and urban areas. Streamflow may rise by 9 % -54 %, heightening dry-season water scarcity and wet season flood risks. Hydropower potential could increase by 6 % - 39 %, accompanied by flood risks from peak flows. Agriculture productivity is projected to decline by 4 % to 21 %, driven by rising temperatures, high water-consuming crops, conventional irrigation techniques, and reliance on local rainfall. The rising water demand for crops competes with hydropower needs, intensifying under scenarios dominated by agriculture. This study offers insights to support adaptation strategies and sustainable WEF resource management.