Land transfer and planning in suburban villages of mountain valley area based on scenario analysis.

Influenced by terrain constraints and urban negative externality in mountain valley areas, the suburban village construction lands are not only occupied by cities, but also face hollow-out and decline. Various complex situations of construction land use should be considered in the rural land transfer and planning. In this study, scenario analysis method is used to propose a research framework of "Scenario construction-Benefit evaluation-Dynamic planning". In the case of Huazhaizi and Ershilipu villages in Bali, Lanzhou, the construction land use demands are identified initially, and 27 possible development scenarios are designed. Next, thresholds are set to screen out 9 land transfer scenarios, and their respective social and economic benefits are evaluated. Finally, the optimal scenario is obtained based on the benefits, and dynamic planning is carried out with the application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. The results show that the construction of Ershilipu and Huazhaizi villages should be coordinated to achieve the target scenario of Culture-oriented travel, which needs to go through three phases: Family farm renovation, Ecological tourism construction and Cultural tourism construction. From 2025 to 2030, the abandoned residential lands in rural settlements will be consolidated, and 24.89 ha of construction lands near urban areas will be transferred to construct high-rise residential buildings, vegetable processing workshops and family farms. From 2030 to 2035, 14.95 ha of construction lands on both river sides and around settlements should be transferred to build parks and scenic spots, with a view to improving the rural commercial and ecological environments. From 2035 to 2040, 9.93 ha of low-value construction lands inside settlements needs to be transferred to construct cultural tourism projects and tourism service facilities. It is estimated that by the end of planning period, the total revenue will be approximately 3.20 billion yuan. Our research results can provide decision-making reference for the transfer, development direction and use arrangement of suburban village construction lands in mountain valley areas.