Low-coverage whole genome sequencing of cell-free DNA to predict and track immunotherapy response in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

Background: Outcomes under anti-PD-(L)1 therapy have been variable in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) without reliable predictive biomarkers so far. Targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has demonstrated potential clinical utility to support clinical decisions, but requires prior tumor genetic profiling for proper interpretation, and wide adoption remains limited due to high costs.

Methods: Tumor-agnostic low-coverage ctDNA whole genome sequencing (lcWGS) was used to longitudinally track genome-wide copy number variations (CNVs) and fragmentation features in advanced NSCLC patients (n = 118 samples from 49 patients) and healthy controls (n = 57). Tumor PD-L1 expression was available for comparison.

Findings: Fragmentation features and CNVs were complementary indicators, whose combination significantly increased ctDNA detection compared to single-marker assessments (+ 20.3% compared to CNV analysis alone). Baseline fragment length alterations, but not CNVs, were significantly associated with subsequent progression-free survival (PFS; hazard ratio [HR] = 4.10, p = 6.58e-05) and could improve PFS predictions based on tumor PD-L1 expression alone (HR = 2.70, p = 0.019). Residual CNVs or aberrant fragmentation of ctDNA under ongoing therapy could stratify patients according to the subsequent response duration (median 5.8 vs. 47.0 months, p = 1.13e-06). The integrative analysis of ctDNA fragment characteristics at baseline, tumor PD-L1 expression, and residual ctDNA under ongoing treatment constituted the strongest independent predictor of PFS (p = 6.25e-05) and overall survival (p = 1.3e-03) in multivariable analyses along with other clinicopathologic variables.

Interpretation: This study demonstrates the feasibility and potential clinical utility of lcWGS for the tumor-agnostic stratification and monitoring of advanced NSCLC under PD-(L)1 blockade based on CNV and fragmentomic profiling.