Future Use of AI in Diagnostic Medicine: 2-Wave Cross-Sectional Survey Study.

Background: The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) presents transformative potential for diagnostic medicine, offering opportunities to enhance diagnostic accuracy, reduce costs, and improve patient outcomes.

Objective: This study aimed to assess the expected future impact of AI on diagnostic medicine by comparing global researchers' expectations using 2 cross-sectional surveys.

Methods: The surveys were conducted in September 2020 and February 2023. Each survey captured a 10-year projection horizon, gathering insights from >3700 researchers with expertise in AI and diagnostic medicine from all over the world. The survey sought to understand the perceived benefits, integration challenges, and evolving attitudes toward AI use in diagnostic settings.

Results: Results indicated a strong expectation among researchers that AI will substantially influence diagnostic medicine within the next decade. Key anticipated benefits include enhanced diagnostic reliability, reduced screening costs, improved patient care, and decreased physician workload, addressing the growing demand for diagnostic services outpacing the supply of medical professionals. Specifically, x-ray diagnosis, heart rhythm interpretation, and skin malignancy detection were identified as the diagnostic tools most likely to be integrated with AI technologies due to their maturity and existing AI applications. The surveys highlighted the growing optimism regarding AI's ability to transform traditional diagnostic pathways and enhance clinical decision-making processes. Furthermore, the study identified barriers to the integration of AI in diagnostic medicine. The primary challenges cited were the difficulties of embedding AI within existing clinical workflows, ethical and regulatory concerns, and data privacy issues. Respondents emphasized uncertainties around legal responsibility and accountability for AI-supported clinical decisions, data protection challenges, and the need for robust regulatory frameworks to ensure safe AI deployment. Ethical concerns, particularly those related to algorithmic transparency and bias, were noted as increasingly critical, reflecting a heightened awareness of the potential risks associated with AI adoption in clinical settings. Differences between the 2 survey waves indicated a growing focus on ethical and regulatory issues, suggesting an evolving recognition of these challenges over time.

Conclusions: Despite these barriers, there was notable consistency in researchers' expectations across the 2 survey periods, indicating a stable and sustained outlook on AI's transformative potential in diagnostic medicine. The findings show the need for interdisciplinary collaboration among clinicians, AI developers, and regulators to address ethical and practical challenges while maximizing AI's benefits. This study offers insights into the projected trajectory of AI in diagnostic medicine, guiding stakeholders, including health care providers, policy makers, and technology developers, on navigating the opportunities and challenges of AI integration.