Objectives: We aimed to recognize the burden of NAFLD and support public health policy development for its prevention and management.
Study Design: A cross-sectional analysis of GBD 2021 results was conducted.
Methods: We collected incidence data on NAFLD from 1990 to 2021 using Global Burden of Disease Study in 2021. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in NAFLD age standardized incidence rate (ASR) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in NAFLD ASR. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were constructed to project NAFLD incidence rates and cases up to 2050. Additionally, we assessed the percentage of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to NAFLD.
Results: Globally, the newly-occurred cases of NAFLD increased by 94.49 % from 24, 856, 159 in 1990 to 48, 353, 272 in 2021. The case number will further increase to 78,602,984 in 2050, and ASR will increase from 5.93 per 1000 in 2021 to 7.26 per 1000 in 2050. The most pronounced increases were observed in young people and men. In 2021, NAFLD accounted for 82.7 % of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases and 8.0 % of liver cancer cases.
Conclusions: From 1990 to 2021, the incidence of NAFLD has been continuously increasing and is expected to continue rising until 2050. The increases in young people and men highlight their priority in future schedules. The rising proportions of cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by NAFLD further underscore the serious health risks.
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