Ecologo-Geographic Distribution Patterns of the Italian Locust (Linnaeus) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in the Easternmost Part of Its Range.

Grasshoppers (Acridoidea) are one of the most essential components of grassland ecosystems. They are mainly primary consumers and some of them, e.g., the Italian locust, may be very important pests. The main goal of this article is to discuss possible shifts in the species distribution relative to global and local changes. General patterns of latitudinal, longitudinal, and altitudinal distribution of its populations are revealed for the eastern part of its range (mainly from 70° E eastward). Data on its historic and modern localities with geographic coordinates were collected and analyzed. The Maxent approach was used to model species distribution. The comparative analysis shows there are no significant changes in its range. The analysis of altitudinal distribution over mountains of the region demonstrates no significant changes as well. The expected distribution of based on the location points displays significant changes in areas suitable for the species and their evident associations with outbreak occurrences. The models created for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 unveil that, in the future, the local parts of the Italian locust range may shift northward and north-eastward, but the main areas with suitable conditions for this species will remain almost the same.