Prediction of High-risk Capsule Characteristics for Recurrence of Pleomorphic Adenoma in the Parotid Gland Based on Habitat Imaging and Peritumoral Radiomics: A Two-center Study.

Rationale And Objectives: This study aims to develop and validate an ultrasoundbased habitat imaging and peritumoral radiomics model for predicting high-risk capsule characteristics for recurrence of pleomorphic adenoma (PA) of the parotid gland while also exploring the optimal range of peritumoral region.

Materials And Methods: Retrospective analysis was conducted on 325 patients (171 in training set, 74 in validation set and 80 in testing set) diagnosed with PA at two medical centers. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify clinical risk factors. The tumor was segmented into four habitat subregions using K-means clustering, with peri-tumor regions expanded at thicknesses of 1/3/5mm. Radiomics features were extracted from intra-tumor, habitat subregions, and peritumoral regions respectively to construct predictive models, integrating three machine learning classifiers: SVM, RandomForest, and XGBoost. Additionally, a combined model was developed by incorporating peritumoral features and clinical factors based on habitat imaging. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability.

Results: The RandomForest model in habitat imaging consistently outperformed other models in predictive performance, with AUC values of 0.881, 0.823, and 0.823 for the training set, validation set, and testing set respectively. Incorporating peri-1mm features and clinical factors into the combined model slightly improved its performance, resulting in AUC values of 0.898, 0.833, and 0.829 for each set. The calibration curves and DCA exhibited excellent fit for the combined model while providing great clinical net benefit.

Conclusion: The combined model exhibits robust predictive performance in identifying high-risk capsule characteristics for recurrence of PA in the parotid gland. This model may assist in determining optimal surgical margin and assessing patients' prognosis.