Associations of modifiable dementia risk factors with dementia and cognitive decline: evidence from three prospective cohorts.

Objective: This study aims to assess the relationship between modifiable dementia risk factors and both dementia and cognitive decline.

Methods: Data were obtained from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) [2008-2020], the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) [2011-2020], and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) [2010-2020]. After adjusting for confounding factors, multivariable logistic regression was utilized to analyze the relationship between modifiable dementia risk factors and dementia, while multivariable linear regression was employed to examine the relationship between these risk factors and cognitive decline. Additionally, the Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the relationship between the number of risk factor events, clusters, and dementia risk.

Results: A total of 30,113 participants from HRS, CHARLS, and ELSA were included (44.6% male, mean age 66.04 years), with an average follow-up period of 7.29 years. A low education level was significantly associated with an increased risk of dementia and accelerated cognitive decline (Overall, OR = 2.93, 95% CI: 2.70-3.18; Overall,  = -0.25, 95% CI: -0.60 to-0.55). The presence of multiple dementia risk factors correlated with a higher dementia risk; Specifically, compared with more than 5 risk factor events, both having no dementia risk factors and having only one dementia risk factor were associated with a significantly lower risk of dementia (Overall, HR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.11-0.22, HR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.18-0.25). Compared to the group with no coexistence of risk factors, the clusters of excessive alcohol, diabetes, vision loss, and hearing loss (HR = 4.11; 95% CI = 3.42-4.95;  < 0.001); excessive alcohol, vision loss, smoking, and hearing loss (HR = 5.18; 95% CI = 4.30-6.23;  < 0.001); and excessive alcohol, obesity, diabetes, and smoking (HR = 5.96; 95% CI = 5.11-6.95; p < 0.001) were most strongly associated with dementia risk.

Conclusion: Among the 11 risk factors, educational attainment has the greatest impact on dementia risk and cognitive decline. A dose-response relationship exists between the number of modifiable risk factor events and dementia risk. The coexistence of multiple risk factors is associated with dementia risk, and these associations vary by risk factor cluster.