Improved outcome prediction in acute pancreatitis with generated data and advanced machine learning algorithms.

Objectives: Traditional scoring systems have been widely used to predict acute pancreatitis (AP) severity but have limitations in predictive accuracy. This study investigates the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve predictive accuracy in AP.

Methods: A retrospective study was conducted using data from 101 AP patients in a tertiary hospital in Türkiye. Data were preprocessed, and synthetic data were generated with Gaussian noise addition and balanced with the ADASYN algorithm, resulting in 250 cases. Supervised ML models, including random forest (RF) and XGBoost (XGB), were trained, tested, and validated against traditional clinical scores (Ranson's, modified Glasgow, and BISAP) using area under the curve (AUC), F1 score, and recall.

Results: RF outperformed XGB with an AUC of 0.89, F1 score of 0.82, and recall of 0.82. BISAP showed balanced performance (AUC = 0.70, F1 = 0.44, and recall = 0.85), whereas the Glasgow criteria had the highest recall but lower precision (AUC = 0.70, F1 = 0.38, and recall = 0.95). Ranson's admission criteria were the least effective (AUC = 0.53, F1 = 0.42, and recall = 0.39), probable because it lacked the 48 h features.

Conclusion: ML models, especially RF, significantly outperform traditional clinical scores in predicting adverse outcomes in AP, suggesting that integrating ML into clinical practice could improve prognostic assessments.