The usefulness of Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) scoring in predicting all-cause mortality in Outpatients with Clinical Diagnoses of COPD.

Background: Since comorbid conditions are frequently present in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and affect outcome, a composite scoring system to quantify comorbidity might be helpful in assessing mortality risk.

Methods: We tested the hypothesis that the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score at the time of an outpatient medical clinic encounter for COPD predicts all-cause mortality. Cox Proportional Hazards analyses were used in 200 randomly selected patients to relate CCI scores to all-cause mortality out to 5 years.

Results: Mean age was 62 ± 10 years, 56% were female, FEV1 was 62%, CCI was 3.08 ± 2.30, and 30% had a CCI ≥ 4, indicating 3 or more comorbid conditions. All-cause mortality was 8.5% and 20% at 3 and 5 years, respectively. In univariate testing, the CCI score and hospitalizations predicted mortality, but FEV1 did not. In multivariable testing, which included covariates of age, sex, socioeconomic status, race, FEV1 percent-predicted, and all-cause hospitalizations in the preceding year, CCI expressed as a continuous variable strongly predicted mortality: hazard ratio (HR) 1.38 for each unit increase in the score (p < 0.0001). While 1 or 2 comorbid conditions were not significantly related to mortality, 3 or more comorbid conditions (compared to none) strongly predicted mortality: HR 9.80, 95% CI 3.80 to 25.00.

Conclusion: Comorbidity, assessed with the CCI, is strongly predictive of mortality in outpatients with a clinical diagnosis of COPD, and this relationship appears to be non-linear. This instrument may be useful in determining prognosis in this population.