A new simple chronic heart failure prognostic index based on five general parameters.

Background: Prognostic prediction in heart failure (HF) is challenging and no single marker has proven effective. We propose an index based on B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and four widely available parameters.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed adult outpatients with chronic HF with systolic dysfunction followed from January 2012 to December 2020. The new proposed index was calculated based on 5 parameters measured at the index visit. BASIC index = (BNP*(age)) / (serum sodium*hemoglobin*estimated glomerular filtration rate). Patients were followed-up until January 2023; the primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. A receiver operator curve was used to assess the association of the index with outcome; a cut-off was chosen based on the curve. We used a Cox-regression analysis to determine the prognostic value of the index. Adjustments were made considering established prognostic predictors.

Results: We studied 1065 patients. Mean age was 71 years, 65.8 % were male, 45.3 % had ischemic HF and 47.2 % had severe systolic dysfunction. During a 47-months median follow-up, 545 patients died (51.2 %). Median BASIC index: 11.7 (3.5-33.7). The area under the curve was 0.73 (0.70-0.76) vs 0.69 (0.66-0.72) for BNP, p < 0.001. The best cut-off value was 9.3; sensitivity = 71.4 %, specificity = 62.3 %, positive predictive value = 66.5 and negative predictive value = 67.5 %. Patients with a BASIC index above 9.3 had a multivariate-adjusted HR of all-cause mortality = 2.70 (2.20-3.22).

Conclusions: The incorporation of age, hemoglobin, serum sodium, glomerular filtration rate and BNP in an index significantly improves prognostic prediction when compared to BNP alone. Patients with a BASIC index above 9.3 have an almost 3-fold higher death-risk.