Majority of hip fragility fractures among older people can be predicted by a DXA examination: an updated analysis of literature results and empirical Chinese data with a focus on the validation of the newly proposed osteofrailia criterion for men.

Background: How different gender-specific bone mineral density cutpoint T-scores are associated with different hip fragility fracture (FFx) prediction sensitivity has not been well studied. This article presents an updated analysis of hip FFx prediction among older people by a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measure, using literature results and our own Chinese data.

Methods: We systematically searched literature reports on DXA T-score results measured at the timepoint of a hip FFx. With osteoporotic fractures in women (MsOS) and in men (MrOS) Hong Kong studies, at baseline 2,000 Chinese women (mean: 72.5 years) and 2,000 Chinese men (mean: 72.3 years) were recruited. Female participants were followed up for 8.8±1.5 years, and 69 FFx were recorded. Male participants were followed up for 9.9±2.8 years, and 63 hip FFx were recorded.

Results: Ten articles published femoral neck (FN) and/or total hip (TH) T-score at the timepoint of a hip FFx with separated females' or males' T-score data. We estimated that, if a DXA exam were taken shortly before the FFx accident, females' FN, females' TH, males' FN, or males' TH T-scores on average predicted 66.9%, 70.4%, 66.5%, and 67.8% of the hip FFx. For the MsOS and MrOS Hong Kong studies, a combination of baseline FN and TH T-score predicted >50% of the cases with a follow-up hip FFx. A combination of baseline FN T-score, TH T-score, lumbar spine T-score, and spine fracture-like deformity assessment predicted 68.1% of the female cases with a follow-up hip FFx, and 63.4% of the male cases with a follow-up hip FFx.

Conclusions: If a DXA scan is regularly performed, approximately 70% of the hip FFx incidents can be predicted for older women and men.