The desert locust () is a destructive migratory pest, posing great threat to over 60 countries globally. In the backdrop of climate change, the habitat suitability of desert locusts is poised to undergo alterations. Hence, investigating the shifting dynamics of desert locust habitats holds profound significance in ensuring global agricultural resilience and food security. In this study, we combined the maximum entropy modelling and geographic information system technology to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns and habitat adaptability of desert locusts. The results indicate that the suitable areas for desert locusts (0.2976 × 10 km) are concentrated in northern Africa and southwestern Asia, accounting for 19.97% of the total global land area. Key environmental variables affecting the desert locust distribution include temperature annual range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, average temperature of February, and precipitation of the driest month. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, potential suitable areas for desert locusts are estimated to increase from 2030 (2021-2040) to 2090 (2081-2100). By 2090, highly suitable areas for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 are projected to be 0.0606 × 10 and 0.0891 × 10 km, respectively, reflecting an expansion of 1.84 and 2.77% compared to existing ones. These research findings provide a theoretical basis for adopting prevention and control strategies for desert locusts.
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Article Synopsis
- There is a critical need for mathematical models to enhance surveillance and management of transboundary pest invasions, specifically targeting desert locusts, which pose a significant threat to smallholder farmers.
- The proposed integrated modeling framework predicts locust populations by incorporating various life stages and their movement patterns in search of suitable environments for breeding and feeding.
- This framework combines epidemiological modeling, weather data, and atmospheric transport models, aiming to serve as a practical tool for predicting locust swarm movements during future upsurges.
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