Chronic Offending and Its Relation to Homicide in a Large, Prospective Brazilian Birth Cohort.

Background: Many studies have found that a small group of chronic offenders is responsible for the majority of crimes and tend to be particularly violent. However, there is a major lack of evidence on chronic offending in low- and middle-income countries; understanding these patterns is especially important in settings with very high levels of serious violence, such as Brazil.

Aims: To identify the extent that crime is concentrated in chronic offenders and linked to violence and homicide in a Brazilian cohort.

Methods: The 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort includes 5623 participants followed from birth in 1982 with complete crime records up to age 30. Chronic offenders were defined as individuals who committed five or more offences and, in aggregate, over 50% of all crimes. Key offending characteristics including age of onset, violent and homicide offending, and incarceration rates were compared across three different offender groups (one-timers, below-chronic and chronic offenders).

Results: Approximately 27% of participants had a record for at least one crime by age 30, and 5% were chronic offenders. Chronic offenders were responsible for 57% of all crimes, 54% of violent crimes and 68% of homicides. Chronic offenders exhibited more severe patterns of offending on all characteristics examined compared to non-chronic offenders. Homicides committed by chronic offenders were more likely to involve firearms than those by non-chronic offenders.

Discussion: This is the first study to analyse chronic offending within a large prospective cohort in a low- and middle-income country. Chronic offending patterns in this Brazilian setting resemble those in high-income country studies and are highly related to homicides.