Spatiotemporal analysis of agricultural drought variability in the uMkhanyakude District Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal.

Exploring drought dynamics has become urgent due to unprecedented climate change. Projections indicate that drought events will become increasingly widespread globally, posing a significant threat to the sustainability of the agricultural sector. This growing challenge has resulted in heightened interest in understanding drought dynamics and their impacts on agriculture. uMkhanyakude District Municipality (UKDM) has experienced substantial drought occurrences, and 95% of rural dwellers within the district depend on small-scale agriculture, social security grants, and remittances for their livelihoods. Hence, there is a critical need for spatiotemporal assessments of drought within the district to fully comprehend the severity and spatial distribution of these events. This study addressed this need by assessing vegetation variability and agricultural drought occurrences across the UKDM from 2002 to 2023, by leveraging key vegetation health indices-namely, the Vegetation Condition Index, Temperature Condition Index, and Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The results identified major historical droughts, including episodes in 2002-2004 and 2015-2016 linked to El Niño events. Moreover, the findings revealed localised vulnerability to drought, although severe drought was limited at the district level. Moderate drought conditions characterised most months across Mtubatuba, Umhlabuyalingana, Jozini, and Big 5 Hlabisa local municipalities, ranging from 40.34% in Jozini to 59.75% in Umhlabuyalingana. No drought conditions occur less frequently across the district, ranging from 0.89% in Jozini to 7.33% in Mtubatuba, indicating limited periods of optimal vegetation health. This pattern suggests that certain areas within the district are particularly susceptible to drought, potentially threatening agricultural productivity and food security. The study highlights the efficacy of vegetation indices in capturing known drought events, underscoring their utility, especially in regions where ground-based data may be scarce. This spatiotemporal assessment provides an enhanced understanding of agricultural drought patterns to inform drought-related decision-making and adaptation in the agricultural sector. Given the consistent vulnerability identified, government support should be directed toward drought-prone areas, particularly through enhanced water resource management and infrastructure investment. Targeted measures are particularly recommended for areas with persistently low VHI values, such as the inland western regions of Jozini. Such efforts will strengthen resilience and sustainability in agricultural practices, safeguarding livelihoods and food security.