Objective: This study assesses whether longitudinal quantitative pupillometry predicts neurological deterioration after large middle cerebral artery (MCA) stroke and determines how early changes are detectable.
Methods: This prospective, single-center observational cohort study included patients with large MCA stroke admitted to Boston Medical Center's intensive care unit (2019-2024). Associations between time-to-neurologic deterioration and quantitative pupillometry, including Neurological Pupil Index (NPi), were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models with time-dependent covariates adjusted for age, sex, and Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score. Models using dilation velocity were compared with partial likelihood ratio tests. Pupillometric changes over 2-h intervals in the 12 h preceding deterioration were analyzed with linear mixed-effects modeling and Tukey's test. Matched referents (age, sex, stroke side, follow-up duration) were used for comparison. Optimal thresholds were identified using the Youden Index.
Results: Among 71 patients (mean age 66.5 years; 59.2% women), 32 (45.1%) experienced deterioration. A 1-unit decrease in NPi was associated with a higher hazard of deterioration (hazard ratio 2.46; 95% confidence interval 1.68-3.61). Dilation velocity improved model performance compared to NPi alone. NPi was significantly lower at 0-2 h (3.81 vs. 4.38, p = 0.001) and 2-4 h (3.71 vs. 4.38, p < 0.001) before deterioration compared to 10-12 h prior. Optimal thresholds were 4.01 for NPi, 0.49 mm/s for dilation velocity, and -0.15 change in NPi over 12 h.
Interpretation: Quantitative pupillometry predicts neurological deterioration in MCA stroke, with declines detectable up to 12 h prior. Dilation velocity shows promise as a novel biomarker. ANN NEUROL 2025.
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