[Risk factors for plastic bronchitis in children with macrolide-unresponsive pneumonia and establishment of a nomogram model].

Objectives: To investigate the risk factors for plastic bronchitis (PB) in children with macrolide-unresponsive pneumonia (MUMPP) and to establish a nomogram prediction model.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 178 children with MUMPP who underwent bronchoscopy from January to December 2023. According to the presence or absence of PB, the children were divided into a PB group (49 children) and a non-PB group (129 children). The predictive factors for the development of PB in children with MUMPP were analyzed, and a nomogram prediction model was established. The model was assessed in terms of discriminatory ability, accuracy, and clinical effectiveness.

Results: The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that older age and higher levels of lactate dehydrogenase and fibrinogen were closely associated with the development of PB in children with MUMPP (<0.05). A nomogram model established based on these factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.733 (95%: 0.651-0.816, <0.001) and showed a good discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated that the predictive model had a good degree of fit (>0.05), and the decision curve analysis showed that the model had a good clinical application value.

Conclusions: The risk nomogram model established based on age and lactate dehydrogenase and fibrinogen levels has good discriminatory ability, accuracy, and predictive efficacy for predicting the development of PB in children with MUMPP.