Prognostic value of changes in vibration-controlled transient elastography parameters for liver, cardiovascular and mortality outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: The Rio de Janeiro type 2 diabetes cohort.

Background/aims: The prognostic importance of changes in vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) parameters, liver stiffness measurement (LSM), and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is unknown.

Methods: A prospective cohort of 288 patients underwent 2 VCTE exams at least 2 years apart, and the relative percentage changes in LSM and CAP were calculated. Outcomes were the occurrence of any liver-related events (LREs), cardiovascular events (CVEs), and all-cause mortality. Multivariable Cox analyses, adjusted for liver and cardiometabolic factors, assessed associations between VCTE parameters changes, both as continuous and dichotomical variables (LSM increase >15% and CAP reduction >10%), and outcomes.

Results: During a median follow-up of 6 years, there were 22 LREs, 28 CVEs, and 37 all-cause deaths. For LREs, baseline LSM was the strongest predictor, but LSM increases added further prognostic value (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.5 [1.0-2.1], 1-SD increment). For CVEs, both LSM increase (HR: 1.7 [1.3-2.3]) and CAP reduction (HR: 1.5 [1.0-2.3], 1-SD decrease) were significant predictors. For all-cause mortality, baseline CAP was a protective predictor. When classified into subgroups based on LSM and CAP changes, the subgroup with both increased LSM and reduced CAP had the highest risks for CVEs (HR:5.3 [1.4-19.6]) and all-cause mortality (HR: 3.4 [1.2-9.6]). The highest risk for LREs was observed in the subgroup with increased LSM without CAP reduction (HR: 3.5 [0.9-12.9]).

Conclusions: VCTE parameters changes, LSM increase and CAP reduction, provide prognostic information for adverse liver, cardiovascular, and mortality outcomes in individuals with T2D and MASLD.