Ultrafiltration membrane modelling: Comparing two mathematical models by sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for Palermo and Corleone (Italy) water reuse case studies.

The new EU Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive requires stricter limits introducing quaternary treatments and poses significant challenges to achieving a sustainable environment. Advanced membrane-based treatment processes combined with mathematical models can be a good solution for facing the challenges above. Most existing literature on membrane filtration models primarily focuses on membrane bioreactors, lacking mechanistic models on ultrafiltration (UF) membranes. This study presents two new UF mechanistic models: a tailored GPS-X module (Model 1), and a custom-made mathematical model (Model 2). The two models were compared using sensitivity, uncertainty, and calibration analysis in two case studies. Results showed a higher capability of Model 2 to simulate membrane fouling and water quality. Model 1 failed in predicting transmembrane pressure and showed a longer simulation time. Both models provided acceptable uncertainty in predicting permeate concentrations.