Compartmental models with exponentially distributed lifetime stages assume a constant hazard rate, limiting their scope. This study develops a theoretical framework for systems with general lifetime distributions, modeled as transition rates in a renewal process. Applications are provided for the SVIS (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Susceptible) disease epidemic model to investigate the impacts of hazard rate functions (HRFs) on disease control. The novel SVIS model is formulated as a non-autonomous nonlinear system (NANLS) of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), with coefficients defined by HRFs. Key statistical properties and the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) are derived, and conditions for the system's asymptotic autonomy are established for specific lifetime distributions. Four HRF behaviors-monotonic, bathtub, reverse bathtub, and constant-are analyzed to determine conditions for disease eradication and the asymptotic population under these scenarios. Sensitivity analysis examines how HRF behaviors shape system trajectories. Numerical simulations illustrate the influence of diverse lifetime models on vaccine efficacy and immunity, offering insights for effective disease management.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-80166-y | DOI Listing |
J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol
January 2025
Environmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Background: Accurate estimates of personal exposure to ambient air pollution are difficult to obtain and epidemiological studies generally rely on residence-based estimates, averaged spatially and temporally, derived from monitoring networks or models. Few epidemiological studies have compared the associated health effects of personal exposure and residence-based estimates.
Objective: To evaluate the association between exposure to air pollution and cognitive function using exposure estimates taking mobility and location into account.
Sci Rep
January 2025
Department of Biostatistics, Data Science and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Augusta University, 1120, 15th Street, Augusta, GA, 30912, USA.
Compartmental models with exponentially distributed lifetime stages assume a constant hazard rate, limiting their scope. This study develops a theoretical framework for systems with general lifetime distributions, modeled as transition rates in a renewal process. Applications are provided for the SVIS (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Susceptible) disease epidemic model to investigate the impacts of hazard rate functions (HRFs) on disease control.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFComput Med Imaging Graph
January 2025
Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Computer Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti, 00185, Rome, Italy. Electronic address:
Predicting the outcome of antiretroviral therapies (ART) for HIV-1 is a pressing clinical challenge, especially when the ART includes drugs with limited effectiveness data. This scarcity of data can arise either due to the introduction of a new drug to the market or due to limited use in clinical settings, resulting in clinical dataset with highly unbalanced therapy representation. To tackle this issue, we introduce a novel joint fusion model, which combines features from a Fully Connected (FC) Neural Network and a Graph Neural Network (GNN) in a multi-modality fashion.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPLoS One
January 2025
Department of Mathematics, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
In biology and life sciences, fractal theory and fractional calculus have significant applications in simulating and understanding complex problems. In this paper, a compartmental model employing Caputo-type fractional and fractal-fractional operators is presented to analyze Nipah virus (NiV) dynamics and transmission. Initially, the model includes nine nonlinear ordinary differential equations that consider viral concentration, flying fox, and human populations simultaneously.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMath Biosci Eng
December 2024
Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Georgia State University, Atlanta, USA.
Control and prevention strategies are indispensable tools for managing the spread of infectious diseases. This paper examined biological models for the post-vaccination stage of a viral outbreak that integrate two important mitigation tools: social distancing, aimed at reducing the disease transmission rate, and vaccination, which boosts the immune system. Five different scenarios of epidemic progression were considered: (ⅰ) the "no control" scenario, reflecting the natural evolution of a disease without any safety measures in place, (ⅱ) the "reconstructed" scenario, representing real-world data and interventions, (ⅲ) the "social distancing control" scenario covering a broad set of behavioral changes, (ⅳ) the "vaccine control" scenario demonstrating the impact of vaccination on epidemic spread, and (ⅴ) the "both controls concurrently" scenario incorporating social distancing and vaccine controls simultaneously.
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