Trends and analysis of risk factor differences in the global burden of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes from 1990 to 2021: A population-based study.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant contributor to the global burden of disease. Among its causes, chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes (CKD-T2D) is the primary subtype. This study aims to provide an updated assessment of the global disease burden of CKD-T2D from 1990 to 2021. It will analyse the trends in the global burden of CKD-T2D and the differences in risk factors, as well as project changes over the next 15 years.

Methods: The data for this study were derived from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. Estimates of prevalence, incidence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for CKD-T2D, along with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), were extracted. The trends in CKD-T2D burden from 1990 to 2021 were analysed from overall and local perspectives. An age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the age, period and cohort effects on the prevalence and incidence of CKD-T2D between 1990 and 2021. A decomposition analysis was conducted to assess the contribution of population size, age structure and epidemiological changes to the burden of CKD-T2D. Population-attributable fractions were determined for each risk factor, and a difference analysis was conducted. Additionally, projections were made regarding changes in the burden of CKD-T2D over the next 15 years.

Results: In 2021, the global burden of CKD-T2D remained significant, with a total of 107 559 955 cases. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) was 1259.63 per 100 000 people. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 23.07 per 100 000 people, and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was 5.72 per 100 000 people. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) was 131.08 per 100 000. The global burden of CKD-T2D showed variation across different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. In 2021, the overall burden of CKD-T2D continued to rise, with the age effect increasing with age. Both prevalence and incidence risks showed an upward trend over time. Decomposition analysis indicated that population growth and ageing were the primary contributors to the global burden of DALYs related to CKD-T2D. Metabolic risk factors such as high fasting plasma glucose and high body mass index (BMI) are the most significant attributable risk factors. It is projected that by 2036, the trends in ASPR, ASIR, ASDR and age-standardized DALYs will stabilize. However, ASIR and age-standardized DALYs are expected to continue rising, and the number of cases of prevalence, incidence, mortality and DALYs will persist in their upward trend.

Conclusion: CKD-T2D imposes a significant global disease burden, with health disparities and unequal disease outcomes continuing to worsen across countries and regions due to differences in socio-economic development levels. This burden is primarily driven by population growth, ageing and metabolic risks such as obesity, hyperglycaemia and hypertension. Although the rate of increase in disease burden may slow over the next 15 years, the number of cases is expected to rise substantially. Therefore, enhancing prevention, early screening and effective treatment interventions, particularly in high-risk areas, is crucial for reducing the disease burden and narrowing health disparities.