State-level policies alone are insufficient to meet the federal food waste reduction goal in the United States.

The United States Food Loss and Waste Reduction Goal seeks to reduce national food waste by 50%, down to 74 kg per capita, by 2030. Here we investigate state policies' alignment with the federal goal across four policy categories. We develop a policy scoring matrix and apply it to wasted food solutions listed in the non-profit ReFED's database to derive ranges of food waste diversion potential and projected generation across states. On the basis of state policies alone, no state can meet the federal target. We estimated a diversion potential of 5-14 kg per capita and a food waste generation of 149 kg per capita nationally in 2022, equivalent to the 2016 baseline. Without additional intervention at the state and federal level promoting a shift from food waste recycling towards prevention, rescue and repurposing, food generation in the United States will probably remain high.