Predictive model of neurodevelopmental outcome in neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy.

Objectives: To build an early, prognostic model for adverse outcome in infants with hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) receiving therapeutic hypothermia (TH) based on brain magnetic resonance images (MRI), electrophysiological tests and clinical assessments were performed during the first 5 days of life.

Methods: Retrospective study of 182 neonates with HIE and managed with TH. The predominant pattern of HIE brain injury on MRI performed following cooling was scored by neuroradiologists. The electroencephalogram (EEG) background and evoked potential (EP) response, were analyzed. Area under the curve (AUC) of these tools for adverse outcome including death and/or moderate disabilities using the Bayley-III at 36 months were calculated. A stepwise model approach was used to reach the final most efficient predictive model.

Results: Of 182 neonates, 99 were male (54.4 %), with median gestational age of 39 weeks (IQR 38-40) and median weight of 3.3 kg (IQR 2.9-3.7). On admission, 47 (26 %), 104 (57 %) and 31(17 %) neonates presented with mild, moderate and severe encephalopathy respectively. In multivariate analysis of 129 infants who received all prognostic modalities, the predictive value of a model of EEG plus MRI, AUC = 84 %) is equivalent to models of EEG plus MRI with added EP and clinical assessment at discharge (AUC = 84 and 85 % respectively).

Conclusion: In the era of cooling for neonatal HIE, the combination of EEG background and MRI during the first few days of life, provide an objective and highly reliable model for prediction of death and long-term disabilities.