Risk ranking of mycotoxins in plant-based meat and dairy alternatives under protein transition scenarios.

While reducing the consumption of animal-source foods is recommended for planetary and human health, potential emerging food safety risks associated with the transition to dietary patterns featuring plant-based meat (PBMA) and dairy alternatives (PBDA) remain unexplored. We assessed the exposure to mycotoxins and ranked the associated health risks related to the consumption of PBMA and PBDA. We simulated diets by replacing animal-source proteins with their plant-based alternatives. A risk ratio method, based on the hazard quotient (HQ), was applied to rank mycotoxin-related food safety risks. An aggregated dataset containing contamination data of 45 mycotoxins distributed over 182 PBDA and 131 PBMA samples, collected and analyzed in Europe, representing a convenience sample, was used as input in our risk assessment. The highest risk mycotoxins identified for PBMA in the lower bound scenario (LB) were the sum of aflatoxins (sum AF), alternariol monomethyl ether (AME), aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and alternariol (AOH), with HQs for children of 121.3, 66.8, 24.0 and 4.3, respectively. In the milk substitution model (LB), HQs of 4.9 (sum AF) and 1.4 (AFB1) were calculated for children, indicating a potential food safety risk. Further analysis demonstrated that soy-based meat alternatives are the highest risk food products, in particular for sum AF, AME, AOH and AFB1. With regard to PBDA, highest HQs were found for sum AF in almond and oat drink, and AFB1 in oat drink. This research presents an approach to overcome the lack of data in the assessment of emerging risks associated with the shift to more sustainable dietary patterns.