Objectives: During the COVID-19 pandemic, free on-demand testing was promoted in the US. This study was undertaken to support or refute the hypothesis that negative SARS-CoV-2 tests led to travel that exposed travelers to the virus in US states.
Methods: Data on daily trips outside households based on cell phone movement were matched by date to negative tests, positive tests, subsequent COVID-19 cases, and deaths lagged at various intervals in 49 US states during the first 16 months of the pandemic. Least-squares regression of weekly trips as a function of prior trips, negative tests, and cases was examined. Cases 10-14 days after negative tests and deaths 20-25 days later as a function of previous trips and positive tests were also assessed by least squares regression.
Results: Increases in negative tests predicted increases in trips but trips declined as cases increased. Changes in trips predicted short-term changes in cases and deaths. The data closely fit the models.
Conclusions: Surges in cases and deaths from COVID-19 were likely a partial result of on-demand testing, without sufficient contact tracing and quarantine, which misled those who tested negative into thinking that it was safe to travel.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2024.344 | DOI Listing |
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