The Role of Liver Stiffness Measurement and Spleen Stiffness Measurement in Predicting the Risk of Developing HCC.

Background/objectives: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth most common cause of cancer worldwide. More than 90% of cases occur in cirrhotic patients, with the degree of fibrosis being the main risk factor for the development of HCC. Liver biopsy is the gold-standard for fibrosis assessment, but it is an invasive procedure. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has shown high accuracy for diagnosing liver cirrhosis, as well as for predicting decompensation and HCC development. More recently, spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) has presented excellent results for ruling in/out high-risk varices and the presence of clinical significant portal hypertension. The aim of our study was to evaluate the relationship between LSM and SSM and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Methods: A prospective study on cirrhotic patients was performed in a tertiary center from January 2020 to May 2024. All patients were submitted to liver and spleen elastography (with a new probe of 100 Hz) by the same blinded operator and were treated in the same institution for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Results: We included 299 cirrhotic patients, 75.9% male, with a mean age of 61.8 years (±10.0). The median value of LSM was 25.7 kPa [4.5-75.0] and that of SSM was 44.6 kPa [7.9-100.0]. The median follow-up time was 505 days [114.0-1541.0]. During this period, 18 patients developed HCC, with a median time to HCC diagnosis after LSM and SSM of 321 days [63.0-1227.0]. LSM was the only factor associated with the development of HCC ( = 0.002) with an AUC of 0.715. On the other hand, SSM was not associated with the development of HCC.

Conclusions: We found that the risk of developing HCC is associated with liver fibrosis but not with portal hypertension (assessed using SSM).