Past, present and future of injury prevalence in high-income countries: insights and projections up to 2030 from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: Injury prevalence is a metric which can be used to understand healthcare utilisation and prioritise injuries based on the magnitude of the injury rate. Given the ageing population in high-income countries and subsequently ageing of the injured population, the probability of long-term or permanent consequences of injuries is also likely to increase. By understanding past trends and exploiting patterns of prevalence injury rates (PIRs), future PIRs can be predicted.

Design: Data on PIRs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD2019) were collected. To understand past trends of GBD2019, joinpoint regression analysis was used to find trends expressed as annual per cent changes (APCs), averaged APCs and to compare trends across injuries. To project future PIRs up to 2030, autoregressive integrated moving average time series analysis was used on the GBD2019 data.

Results: All injuries showed negative averaged APCs during 1990-2019, However, an increased PIR is found for the last APC period of the same time interval, the greatest being in amputations with 2.3 (2.1-2.4). All PIR trends were statistically neither parallel nor identical across the injuries. Forecasts showed an absolute and relative increase in PIR projection.

Conclusion: The PIRs positively declined in the past. However, the latest past trends up to 2019 increased, as well as the forecasts to 2030. Reflection and advocating for strategies to mitigate the possible outcome of increased PIRs are given. This proactive approach will form the foundation for future resource allocation and planning. Additionally, there may be a need to adjust current treatment strategies and standards to address the expected increase in demand.