Modeling nearshore total phosphorus in Lake Michigan using linked hydrodynamic and water quality models.

Although the offshore water of Lake Michigan has been below the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) total phosphorus (TP) spring target concentration of 7 μg L for several decades, higher TP concentrations occur in the nearshore, contributing to the resurgence of and other nutrient related issues. The most recent update of the GLWQA specifically calls for the assessment of current nearshore conditions. Such assessment would require an intensive monitoring program supported by water quality models. Here we applied multiple versions of a phosphorus-based model linked to an unstructured-grid hydrodynamic model. We focus on the nearshore regions of Lake Michigan around the Grand and Muskegon rivers - a region with strong riverine TP influence and intensive monitoring. Results from a TP model were compared to observational data and to a previously published Phosphorus-based Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detrital-Mussel (NPZDM) model. Model results and observational data show that parts of the nearshore can be well above the target TP concentrations but, due to the dynamic nature of this region, the TP concentrations can change rapidly. The models' skill statistics in predicting individual observations were variable, but it was able to simulate temporal and spatial trends and captured the distribution of observations in our study area. The similarity between the results of the TP and NPZDM models demonstrated the TP concentrations in this nearshore area are driven by hydrodynamics and river TP loads, which are likely the reasons for the higher observed TP concentrations. Simplicity, transparency, and ease of use of the TP model make it a useful tool for supporting nearshore assessments and estimating existing and future nearshore TP concentrations.