A Time-varying Analysis of General Practice Prescribing in the COVID-19 Era: Lessons from Prescription Dynamics in a Pandemic.

Background/aim: Pharmacotherapy is vital in medicine, but inappropriate and inadequate use of medications significantly impacts global mortality and morbidity. Increased prescribing may indicate irrational use or prolonged illness, while decreased prescribing could suggest undertreatment, supply shortages, or the availability of safer and, more effective treatments. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems, potentially altering prescribing patterns. This study examined its impact on the prescribing patterns of common therapeutic categories and high-risk medicines in general practice in England.

Materials And Methods: Common therapeutic categories were identified from English General Practice prescription data, and high-risk medicines were identified by mapping the UK pharmacovigilance data onto the English prescribing data. A retrospective analysis compared monthly prescription data pre-pandemic, during the pandemic, and post-pandemic. Significant changes in the prescribing volumes of therapeutic categories and high-risk medicines were tracked to determine persistence, intensification, or diminution post-pandemic. Linear regression models analysed prescribing trends.

Results: Among 220 therapeutic categories, 16 experienced significant changes: 14 increased and two decreased during the pandemic. Of 78 high-risk medicines, six showed significant changes: two increased and three decreased. Only three therapeutic categories and two high-risk medicines returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Conclusion: Despite a reduction in general practice appointments during the pandemic, prescribing for several therapeutic categories and certain high-risk medicines surged, indicating increased treatment, prolonged illness or stockpiling. Post-pandemic downward trends suggest long-term under-treatment or reduced stockpiling. Continuous monitoring, strategic healthcare planning, and regulatory interventions are needed to optimise prescribing. Future research is needed to assess the long-term effects on disease management.