The burden and long-term trends of breast cancer by different menopausal status in China.

Background: The burden of breast cancer in women of different menopausal status has not been assessed in China previously. We aim to evaluate and project the burden of breast cancer in different menopausal status in China.

Methods: The incidence and mortality of breast cancer were estimated using the data of 554 cancer registries in 2017 and the trends of incidence and mortality of 112 cancer registries from 2010 to 2017. Data from 22 continued cancer registries from 2000 to 2017 were applied for long-term trend projection to 2030 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Menopausal status was stratified by age, with premenopause defined as chronological age <45 years, perimenopause defined as 45-54 years, and postmenopause defined as ≥55 years.

Results: Approximately 352,300 incident cases and 74,200 deaths of breast cancer occurred in China in 2020, contributing to 2.6 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Perimenopausal women had the highest incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates, with the rates being 100.3 per 100,000, 819.2 per 100,000 and 723.1 per 100,000 persons. While postmenopausal women had the highest mortality rates (25.5 per 100,000 persons). From 2000 to 2017, the largest increase in incidence and mortality for breast cancer was observed in postmenopausal women with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 5.6% and 2.94%. The number of breast cancer cases and deaths will increase to 452,000 and 98,800 in 2030, resulting in 3.2 million DALYs.

Conclusions: The burden of breast cancer is rapidly increasing in China and varies among different menopausal status. Specific prevention and control strategies for women in different menopausal status will be more helpful in reducing the rapidly growing trends of breast cancer.