Tracking of serum lipids from prepuberty to young adulthood: results from the KiGGS cohort study.

Background: Universal lipid screening in childhood for early detection and treatment of familial hypercholesterolemia is under discussion, but will also detect children with multifactorial dyslipidemia. Results from population-based studies can support the design of public health strategies. As few previous studies considered pubertal changes in serum lipid levels, we examined tracking of serum lipids from prepuberty to young adulthood in a population-based cohort.

Methods: This longitudinal study includes 692 children from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS; baseline: 2003-2006, follow-up: 2014-2017) who were 6-8 years old at baseline, at least 18 years old at follow-up, and had measurements of serum total cholesterol (TC), high-density and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C; non-HDL-C) at both time points. We calculated proportions of participants by life stage-specific risk categories applying cut points for young children and young adults. We used correlation coefficients to estimate serum lipid tracking from childhood to young adulthood. The association between follow-up and baseline lipid levels was examined in sex-specific multivariable linear regression models including body mass index (BMI), health-related behaviors and medication use as covariables.

Results: The correlation coefficient between baseline and follow-up was 0.60 for non-HDL-C, 0.56 for TC, and 0.43 for HDL-C and was higher in males than in females. 67% of participants had acceptable and 9% had borderline/elevated non-HDL-C levels at both time points. Of participants with borderline/elevated non-HDL-C levels at baseline 32% remained in this category and 68% improved. Non-HDL-C levels at baseline explained 53% of the variance in levels at follow-up in males and 28% in females. After adjustment for covariables, the explained variance increased to 62% in males and 45% in females. An increase in BMI z-scores from childhood to young adulthood in all sexes and oral contraceptive use in females was positively associated with higher levels at follow-up.

Conclusions: Non-HDL-C levels in prepuberty are moderate predictors of levels in young adulthood, along with increasing BMI from childhood to young adulthood, and oral contraceptive use among women. Comprehensive strategies including public health interventions targeting elevated lipid levels and obesity in combination, are essential to prevent premature cardiovascular events.