Study on risk factors of preoperative deep vein thrombosis in patients with lower limb fractures and construction and validation of risk prediction nomogram model.

Background: To explore the correlation between the levels of D-dimer (D-D), fibrinogen (FIB), fibrinogen degradation products (FDP) and platelets (PLT) in peripheral blood of patients with lower limb fractures and the formation of deep vein thrombosis in lower limbs, and to establish a new thrombosis prediction model for patients with lower limb fractures.

Methods: The patients were divided into DVT group and non DVT group according to whether there was deep vein thrombosis of the lower extremity. The differences in the levels of D-D, FIB, FDP and platelets between the two groups were analyzed and compared. ROC curve was used to evaluate the levels of D-D, FIB, FDP and PLT in the peripheral blood of patients with lower extremity fracture to predict the formation of deep vein thrombosis of the lower extremity. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the related risk factors of deep vein thrombosis, and the corresponding nomogram risk prediction model of lower limb deep vein thrombosis in patients with lower limb fractures was drawn according to the regression coefficient, which was verified by calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and consistency index (C-index).

Results: The levels of D-D, FIB, FDP, and PLT in the DVT group were higher than those in the non DVT group, with statistical significance (P < 0.05); Moreover, FIB is superior to D-D, FDP, and PLT in predicting the risk of fractures and thrombosis, while PLT has the weakest predictive power. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that platelet, D-D, FIB and FDP were independent risk factors for deep vein thrombosis in patients with lower limb fractures (P < 0.05); Based on the independent risk factors mentioned above, the complex logistic regression formula was transformed into a visual column chart, and the consistency index (C-index) was 0.962 and 0.936, and the external verification C-index was 0.841. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram is in high agreement with the actual results. The AUC value of ROC curve indicated that the nomogram has high prediction value.

Conclusions: The levels of D-D, FIB, FDP and PLT in peripheral blood of patients with lower limb fracture and DVT were significantly increased. Early monitoring of D-D, FIB, FDP and PLT levels in patients with lower limb fracture can effectively screen for lower limb deep vein thrombosis.