An examination of the effect of area-level characteristics on juvenile justice and child welfare referrals using multivariate Bayesian spatial modeling.

Background: Neighborhood disadvantage is linked to a higher risk of referrals to child welfare and juvenile justice systems. While past research has explored these associations independently, no study has concurrently examined the spatial overlap of child maltreatment and juvenile justice involvement.

Objective: We examine the spatial overlap of involvement in juvenile justice and child welfare systems to identify areas of shared risk.

Participants And Setting: Youth who received either a juvenile justice or child welfare referral in New Mexico between 2008 and 2015 aggregated to census tracts.

Methods: We examined the spatial overlap of child welfare and juvenile justice involvement using multivariate Bayesian spatial modeling.

Results: Results show a significant positive association between juvenile justice and child maltreatment referrals across neighborhoods. After adjusting for residential instability, immigrant concentration, and residential racial segregation, children in the least deprived 20 % of neighborhoods were 95.2 % and 55.5 % less likely to be referred to child welfare or justice systems, respectively, compared to those in the most deprived 20 %.

Conclusions: Our findings highlight the value of geospatial analyses to guide public health interventions by targeting the shared overlapping risk factors associated with neighborhoods with high risk for both child welfare and juvenile justice system involvement.