Rates and risk factors for relapse among children recovered from severe acute malnutrition in Mali, South Sudan, and Somalia: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Community-based management of acute malnutrition is an effective treatment model for severe acute malnutrition. However, sparse evidence exists on post-discharge outcomes and the sustainability of recovery. This study aimed to evaluate the risk and determinants of relapse following severe acute malnutrition recovery in high-burden settings.

Methods: This multi-country prospective cohort study followed children who had recovered from severe acute malnutrition and their non-malnourished peers in parallel for 6 months in Mali (nine sites), South Sudan (six sites), and Somalia (one site). Nutritional status was assessed by research staff at nutrition clinics monthly to obtain the proportion of children exposed to severe acute malnutrition who relapsed to acute malnutrition and the relative risk of developing acute malnutrition for exposed versus non-exposed (ie, previously non-malnourished) children. Exposed children were eligible if they had been discharged from community-based management of acute malnutrition programmes while aged 6-47 months. Non-exposed children were eligible if they had not had an episode of acute malnutrition in the previous year; non-exposed children were matched to exposed children by age, sex, and community. Acute malnutrition was defined as having a mid-upper arm circumference of less than 125 mm, a weight-for-height Z score of less than -2, or nutritional oedema. The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of acute malnutrition at 6 months in the exposed and non-exposed cohorts. Relapse was defined as an episode of acute malnutrition among exposed children during the 6-month follow-up period.

Findings: Between April 9, 2021, and June 2, 2022, 2749 children were enrolled (1689 exposed and 1060 non-exposed). After 6 months, 30% (95% CI 25-34) of children previously exposed to severe acute malnutrition relapsed in Mali, 63% (95% CI 59-67) in South Sudan, and 22% (95% CI 19-25) in Somalia. Depending on the context, exposed children were 1·2-6·2 times more likely to have acute malnutrition compared with non-exposed children. Higher anthropometric measurements at discharge were protective against relapse; however, few other child-level or household-level factors at the time of discharge were associated with subsequent relapse. After discharge, children experiencing food insecurity or morbidity at time of follow-up were more likely to relapse than those who were not experiencing these factors.

Interpretation: Following severe acute malnutrition recovery, children have a significant risk of relapsing within 6 months, highlighting the particular vulnerability of this population. Although the community-based management of acute malnutrition model proves highly effective in saving lives, high relapse indicates the need for additional services during and following treatment to better sustain recovery.

Funding: The United States Agency for International Development.