Unveiling the global dynamics of dissolved organic carbon in aquatic ecosystems: Climatic and anthropogenic impact, and future predictions.

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and its biodegradability (BDOC%) in aquatic ecosystems significantly impact the global carbon cycle, varying greatly across rivers, lakes, and estuaries due to environmental and anthropogenic factors. However, a thorough understanding of these variations is still lacking. This study investigated the interactions between climate, hydrology, physiography, soil, land cover, and human activity on DOC dynamics in rivers, lakes, and estuaries. Utilizing a robust dataset comprising 744 global data points for DOC concentrations (0.18-29.33 mg/L) and 341 samples for BDOC% (0.44 %-81.12 %), spanning a wide range of geographic and climatic gradients across six continents, machine learning techniques were employed to elucidate the relationships between DOC and BDOC% and environmental and anthropogenic factors and to develop predictive models for global DOC and BDOC storage. Results showed that climate primarily affected DOC and BDOC% levels, with other factors varying by ecosystem type. In rivers, soil and human activity had positive influences, while in lakes, hydrology had a positive effect and human activity had a negative one. In estuaries, soil positively impacted the levels of DOC and BDOC%, whereas human activity had a negative effect. Furthermore, we created separate random forest models for DOC and BDOC% based on different factors in each aquatic ecosystem (R = 0.50-0.89), and applied to data of environmental and anthropogenic factors worldwide, predicting DOC and BDOC storage for 181 countries. Notably, large countries like Canada, Russia, the United States (U.S.), Brazil, and China accounted for 76.07 % and 51.56 % of the total global DOC and BDOC storage, respectively. Storage prediction models under future climate scenarios indicated significant impacts in Europe under the high fossil fuel use scenario. Thus, prioritizing high-storage, climate-vulnerable areas is essential for effective climate change strategies, aiding in the protection of aquatic ecosystems, maintaining the global carbon balance, and promoting sustainable development.