Predicting severe multivessel coronary artery disease to guide access strategy in patients undergoing invasive coronary angiography.

Introduction: Given radial artery conduits are increasingly utilized for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), avoiding transradial access (TRA) for invasive coronary angiography (ICA) may benefit patients who ultimately undergo CABG. We sought to predict the likelihood of severe multivessel disease (MVD) before ICA to guide this decision.

Methods: This was a single-center study of 1485 patients with stable symptoms who underwent ICA. A model to predict severe MVD was developed. Relative importance analyses were performed to identify clinical characteristics most associated with the presence or absence of severe MVD.

Results: When predicting severe MVD, the model had a sensitivity of 70.3% and specificity of 71.8% (area under the curve = 0.7105). With a prevalence of 12.5% in our cohort, the model had a strong negative predictive value of 94.4%. Relative importance analyses showed factors most associated with the presence of severe MVD were a history of abnormal noninvasive tests, typical chest pain, aspirin use, insulin-dependent diabetes, increasing age, and a family history of coronary artery disease. Conversely, the absence of severe MVD was most associated with female sex, undergoing ICA as workup for either noncardiac or valve surgery, lung disease, atypical chest pain, and increased BMI.

Conclusion: Clinical information available before ICA can risk stratify the likelihood of severe MVD and therefore aid in identifying patients that may need CABG and could stand to benefit from TRA avoidance. The potential benefits of maximizing radial artery conduit availability by avoiding TRA must be balanced against the risks of alternative access on an individual patient basis.