Geospatial Modeling of Deep Neural Visual Features for Predicting Obesity Prevalence in Missouri: Quantitative Study.

Background: The global obesity epidemic demands innovative approaches to understand its complex environmental and social determinants. Spatial technologies, such as geographic information systems, remote sensing, and spatial machine learning, offer new insights into this health issue. This study uses deep learning and spatial modeling to predict obesity rates for census tracts in Missouri.

Objective: This study aims to develop a scalable method for predicting obesity prevalence using deep convolutional neural networks applied to satellite imagery and geospatial analysis, focusing on 1052 census tracts in Missouri.

Methods: Our analysis followed 3 steps. First, Sentinel-2 satellite images were processed using the Residual Network-50 model to extract environmental features from 63,592 image chips (224×224 pixels). Second, these features were merged with obesity rate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for Missouri census tracts. Third, a spatial lag model was used to predict obesity rates and analyze the association between deep neural visual features and obesity prevalence. Spatial autocorrelation was used to identify clusters of obesity rates.

Results: Substantial spatial clustering of obesity rates was found across Missouri, with a Moran I value of 0.68, indicating similar obesity rates among neighboring census tracts. The spatial lag model demonstrated strong predictive performance, with an R of 0.93 and a spatial pseudo R of 0.92, explaining 93% of the variation in obesity rates. Local indicators from a spatial association analysis revealed regions with distinct high and low clusters of obesity, which were visualized through choropleth maps.

Conclusions: This study highlights the effectiveness of integrating deep convolutional neural networks and spatial modeling to predict obesity prevalence based on environmental features from satellite imagery. The model's high accuracy and ability to capture spatial patterns offer valuable insights for public health interventions. Future work should expand the geographical scope and include socioeconomic data to further refine the model for broader applications in obesity research.