Population-level impact of weight loss on predicted healthcare spending and the incidence of obesity-related outcomes in the Asia-Pacific region: a modelling study.

Background: The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region includes a significant proportion of the global population currently living with overweight and obesity. This modelling analysis was conducted to quantify the incidence of obesity-related comorbidities and change in obesity-related costs over 10 years with a hypothetical 10% weight loss in Australia, South Korea, Thailand, and India.

Methods: An epidemiological-economic model was used to describe current prevalence and direct medical costs of ten obesity-related comorbidities, including type 2 diabetes and hypertension, in adults aged 20-69 years living with obesity, and estimate incidence and costs over 10 years. Incidence reduction and the associated savings by 2032 were then estimated for a 10% weight-loss scenario.

Results: The total estimated medical costs for the ten obesity-related comorbidities in 2022 were 2.9, 7.5, 10.2, and 23.3 billion USD in Australia, South Korea, Thailand, and India, respectively. Costs increase to 6.9, 18.4, 23.5, and 44.3 billion USD in 2032, if insufficient action is taken. A 10% weight reduction would result in estimated savings of 0.3, 1.2, 2.2, and 3.0 billion USD in Australia, South Korea, Thailand, and India, respectively, in 2032, with cumulative savings over the 10-year period of 1.8, 7.0, 13.0, and 17.4 billion USD. Incidence of comorbidities were estimated to rise less in the weight-loss scenario.

Conclusions: The financial, societal, and health benefits of a substantial but achievable 10% weight loss in adults living with obesity, and the consequences of insufficient action, are pronounced in the APAC region. To achieve sustained weight loss in the real world, policy actions for addressing barriers to obesity management are required.