Contraceptive use, unmet need, and demand satisfied for family planning across Cameroon: a subnational study including indirect effects of COVID-19 and armed conflict on projections.

Background: Cameroon is among countries that have made notable investments nationwide in line with the Family Planning 2030 initiative. This study examines the progress made across the 10 regions and 58 divisions of the country, including potential impairments following COVID-19 and armed conflict.

Methods: In this time-series analysis, parameters were sourced from 5 Demographic and Health Surveys and 3 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys conducted between 1991 and 2018. The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) was used to estimate key family planning indicators among married women of reproductive age. Data from official country reports and FPET results were incorporated into Bayesian models to assess how projections (from 2020 to 2030) would vary given varying contractions (i.e., 0%, 5%, 10%, and 25% annually) to services coverage.

Results: Nationally, modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) and demand satisfied with modern (contraceptive) methods reached 16.8% (95% credible interval 12.0 to 23.0) and 37.6% (28.7 to 47.0), respectively; and unmet need for modern methods decreased to 27.9% (22.9 to 33.7) in 2022. Notable improvements were observed in the East region and Boumba et Ngoko division, with annual mCPR trends of 2.1 percentage points (%p) (- 0.2 to 4.2) and 7.0%p (4.5 to 9.3) from 2015-2020; and 2030 projections of 58.7% (41.3 to 74.0) and 79.1% (65.0 to 89.0), respectively. The least performing in terms of demand satisfied with modern methods include Adamawa at the regional and Boyo at the divisional level, with 2030 projections of 45.5% (26.5 to 65.1) and 0.4% (0.2 to 0.8), respectively. The northern regions (Adamawa, Far North, and North) recorded the lowest levels of unmet need for modern methods. To achieve ≥ 75% demand satisfied with modern methods in 2030, an additional 1.4 (0.6 to 2.2) million modern contraceptive users are required. Given large reductions (- 25% annually) in services coverage post-COVID-19/armed conflict (2020 to 2030), the South region could experience the most significant contraction in projected mCPR, with a decrease of - 9.2%.

Conclusions: Family planning outcomes vary significantly across subnational territories of Cameroon. While the East region shows notable success, greater attention is needed in the northern regions. Strategies must be adaptive to address unprecedented emergencies that may disrupt access to services.