THE EFFECTS OF RAIN AND DROUGHT ON INCIDENCE OF ENTERIC DISEASE IN PENNSYLVANIA (2010 - 2019).

Background: Campylobacter, nontyphoidal Salmonella, Cryptosporidium, and Giardia cause an estimated 1 million cases of domestically acquired waterborne diseases annually in the United States. Acute symptoms can include diarrhea and vomiting; however, these illnesses can result in longer term complications such as reactive arthritis, Guillan Barré syndrome and death, particularly in immunocompromised individuals. Precipitation and drought can plausibly increase the risk of enteric infections, but consensus in the literature is lacking.

Objectives: To determine the effects of rain and drought on weekly counts of reportable enteric illness (due to Salmonella, Campylobacter, Giardia, or Cryptosporidium) in Pennsylvania, US between 2010-2019.

Methods: We obtained 10-years of data on confirmed illness from 66 Pennsylvania counties due to: Salmonella (9,924), Campylobacter (15,854), Giardia (4,537), and Cryptosporidium (4,017). A zero-inflated negative binomial model with random-intercept for county was used to assess the relationship between illnesses caused by these pathogens between 2010-2019, and weekly rain (cm) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values from the National Weather Service. The lag times that were tested, between illness and weather event, were chosen by calculating the cross correlation between the statewide average weekly rain and the statewide number of weekly cases.

Results: A positive association was found between rain and counts of campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, and giardiasis. An increase in prior wetness (PDSI value) was associated with increased incidence rates of cryptosporidiosis and campylobacteriosis. The relationship between rain and PDSI and illness varied by organism type.

Discussion: Complex relationships exist between enteric disease and precipitation and prior environmental wetness. Our findings suggest that rainfall may be contributing to increased waterborne exposure. Further investigation is needed to explore these relationships with factors such as drinking water source, local geological conditions, presence of combined sewer overflows and agricultural activities, recreational water use and irrigation water sources to better elucidate important waterborne transmission pathways.