Construction of a risk prediction model for postoperative deep vein thrombosis in colorectal cancer patients based on machine learning algorithms.

Background: Colorectal cancer is a prevalent malignancy of the digestive system, with an increasing incidence. Lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is a frequent postoperative complication, occurring in up to 40% of cases.

Objective: This research aims to develop and validate a machine learning model (ML) to predict the risk of lower limb deep vein thrombosis in patients with colorectal cancer, facilitating preventive and therapeutic measures to enhance recovery and ensure safety.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we collected data from 429 colorectal cancer patients from January 2021 to January 2024. The medical records included age, blood test results, body mass index, underlying diseases, clinical staging, histological typing, surgical methods, and postoperative complications. We employed the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique to address imbalanced data and split the dataset into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Feature selection was performed using Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator algorithms (LASSO). We then trained six machine learning models: Logistic Regression (LR), Naive Bayes (NB), Gaussian Process (GP), Random Forest, XGBoost, and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The model's performance was evaluated using metrics such as area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1 score, and confusion matrix. Additionally, SHAP and LIME were used to enhance the interpretability of the results.

Results: The study combined Random Forest, XGBoost algorithms, and LASSO regression with univariate regression analysis to identify significant predictive factors, including age, preoperative prealbumin, preoperative albumin, preoperative hemoglobin, operation time, PIKVA2, CEA, and preoperative neutrophil count. The XGBoost model outperformed other ML algorithms, achieving an AUC of 0.996, an accuracy of 0.9636, a specificity of 0.9778, and an F1 score of 0.9576. Moreover, the SHAP method identified age and preoperative prealbumin as the primary determinants influencing ML model predictions. Finally, the study employed LIME for more precise prediction and interpretation of individual predictions.

Conclusion: The machine learning algorithms effectively predicted postoperative lower limb deep vein thrombosis in colorectal cancer patients. The XGBoost model demonstrated strong potential for improving early detection and treatment in clinical settings.