Climate change and polar marine invertebrates: life-history responses in a warmer, high CO2 world.

Polar marine invertebrates serve as bellwethers for species vulnerabilities in the face of changing climate at high latitudes of the Earth. Ocean acidification, warming/heatwaves, freshening, sea ice retreat and productivity change are challenges for polar species. Adaptations to life in cold water with intensely seasonal productivity has shaped species traits at both poles. Polar species have life histories often characterised as K-strategist or K-selected (e.g. slow growth and development, larval hypometabolism) that make them sensitive to climate stress and altered seasonal productivity. Moderate warming results in faster development and can have positive effects on development, up to a limit. However, ocean acidification can retard development, impair skeletogenesis and result in smaller larvae. Given the fast pace of warming, data on the thermal tolerance of larvae from diverse species is urgently needed, as well as knowledge of adaptive responses to ocean acidification and changes to sea ice and productivity. Predicted productivity increase would benefit energy-limited reproduction and development, while sea ice loss negatively impacts species with reproduction that directly or indirectly depend on this habitat. It is critical to understand the interactive effects between warming, acidification and other stressors. Polar specialists cannot migrate, making them susceptible to competition and extinction from range-extending subpolar species. The borealisation and australisation of Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems, respectively, is underway as these regions become more hospitable for the larval and adult life-history stages of lower-latitude species. Differences in biogeography and pace of change point to different prospects for Arctic and Antarctic communities. In this Commentary, we hypothesise outcomes for polar species based on life history traits and sensitivity to climate change and suggest research avenues to test our predictions.