Global epidemiological profile in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a prediction study.

Objectives: This study delineates the global nasopharyngeal carcinoma's (NPC) incidence and mortality across 185 countries in 2020 and projects the disease's burden by 2040.

Design: A prediction study.

Setting: Countries within the 20 world regions.

Participants: Global NPC population.

Primary And Secondary Outcome Measures: The estimated counts of NPC cases and deaths were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardised death rates (ASDR) were computed. Projections for NPC by 2040 were derived from global population forecasts.

Results: In the year 2020, East Asia emerged as the epicentre of both NPC incidences and mortalities, encompassing 49.39% (65 866 of the total 133 354 cases) and 45.56% (36 453 of the total 80 008 deaths), respectively, with China's contribution being the most substantial (46.82% of cases and 43.50% of deaths). The disparity between genders was notable, as the ASIR and ASDR for males were approximately triple those observed in females. The incidence exhibited regional diversity, with South-Eastern Asia and East Asia recording the highest ASIR for males and females (7.7 and 2.5, and 3.9 and 1.5 per 100 000 person-years, respectively). Similarly, South-Eastern Asia also reported the highest ASDR for both genders (5.4 and 1.5 per 100 000 person-years, respectively). Projections for 2040 anticipate a rise in annual cases and deaths to 179 476 (indicating a 34.58% increase from 2020) and 113 851 (reflecting a 42.29% increase), respectively. Further analysis revealed a correlation between the Human Development Index and disease burden.

Conclusions: NPC, primarily impacting East Asia and predominantly affecting men, is poised for a significant increase in incidence and mortality by 2040, especially in Asia.