Nomogram based on burn characteristics and the National Early Warning Score to predict survival in severely burned patients.

Background: Extensive burns are associated with a high mortality rate. Early prediction and action can reduce mortality. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is considered the best early warning score for predicting mortality. However, there has been no assessment conducted on the clinical prognostic significance of NEWS in individuals suffering from severe burns. The objective of this research was to establish a nomogram based on burn characteristics and the NEWS to predict survival in severely burned patients.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 335 patients diagnosed with extensive burns from 2005 to 2021 in the Department of Burn Surgery of Changhai Hospital, the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed using these prognostic factors and its internal validity was assessed through bootstrap resampling.

Results: The results of multivariate analysis showed that the independent factors affecting the prognosis of severe burn patients were age, full-thickness burn, creatinine, inhalation tracheotomy, and the NEWS, all of which were identified to create the nomogram. The Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion values of the nomogram demonstrated superior goodness-of-fit in predicting severe burns compared to NEWS, with lower scores (195.21 vs. 201.24; 221.91 vs. 224.12, respectively). The bootstrap-adjusted concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram yielded a higher value of 0.923(95 % CI 0.892-0.953), compared to NEWS which had a C-index of 0.699 (95 % CI 0.628-0.770). The calibration curves demonstrated excellent agreement between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes in the nomogram analysis. Furthermore, decision curve analysis indicated promising clinical utility for the proposed nomogram model. By applying an appropriate cutoff value derived from receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, it was observed that the high-risk group identified by the nomogram exhibited a significantly higher mortality rate than the low-risk group.

Conclusion: This study introduces an innovative nomogram that predicts the survival rate of individuals with severe burn injuries by combining clinical attributes and laboratory examinations, demonstrating superior efficacy compared to conventional NEWS systems.