Coastal hardening and what it means for the world's sandy beaches.

Sea level rise is expected to cause chronic shoreline retreat, affecting over 10% of the world's population in low-elevation coastal zones (LECZ). Sandy beaches supported by man-made structures are more vulnerable to substantial beach area loss due to restricted landward migration, affecting ecosystem services. However, the global extent of 'hardened' sandy coastlines at risk of 'severe beach loss' has not been comprehensively quantified. Here, using products and geospatial datasets derived from satellite imagery, we find that, 33% of the world's sandy coastline is currently hardened. Analysis of the results by IPCC AR6 regions show that the most hardened coastal regions are the Bay of Bengal, Western & Central Europe, the Mediterranean, Western North America, and East Asia. Linking coastal hardening information with existing shoreline retreat projections, we find that under SSP5-8.5, up to 26% of the world's sandy coastline (~52,100 km) is likely to face severe beach loss by the end of the 21 century. Under a moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), this projection decreases to 21% (~42,080 km), highlighting the potential mitigation gain. The results also show that the vast majority of projected severe sandy beach losses are in high and upper-middle-income countries, with up to 82% of severe losses under SSP5-8.5 and up to 81% under SSP2-4.5 by the end of the 21 century, relative to the total length of sandy coastline, including both hardened and natural coastlines. The IPCC AR6 regions with the highest projected sandy beach losses include Eastern North America, Northern South America, the Mediterranean, the Bay of Bengal, Western Africa, and South-east Asia.