AI Article Synopsis
- - The study in Manaus revealed that actual COVID-19 cases in early 2022 were as much as 8 times higher than what was officially reported.
- - Vaccination efforts helped lower mortality rates but didn't reach the necessary immunity levels to prevent severe cases, particularly with the emergence of new Omicron variants.
- - To effectively reduce severe COVID-19 cases, vaccination rates need to exceed 90-95% across all age groups, along with regular booster shots every four months.
Article Abstract
We followed the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, one of the epicenters of COVID-19 in Brazil, using an epidemiological mathematical model and made five main conclusions. First, in early 2022, the actual cases exceed officially reported data by up to 8 times. Second, despite vaccination campaigns, the collective immunity threshold necessary was insufficient to contain severe cases of COVID-19. Next, the low observed mortality demonstrated the effectiveness of vaccination. Next, the drop in the vaccination rate combined with immune escape by the Omicron sub-variants (BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5) resulted in new wave after November 2022. Finally, to minimize severe cases of COVID-19, we need to raise vaccination thresholds above 90-95% of the entire population including children aged 6 months and older and require booster doses at least in four-month intervals. This approach would help to prevent severe cases of COVID-19 that cause hospitalizations and deaths.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41271-024-00530-0 | DOI Listing |
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